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Every
crisis is different and every crisis is the same. Different
crisis causes can have very predictable effects. |
Understanding and
prioritizing every possible category of a crisis based on probability and
its effect will ensure you plan for the right events and don't get
caught off-guard.
7 Effects of Disasters &
Crisis
Even one
effect can cause significant problems
for those who have not prepared
1. Loss of your
home for shelter
2. Loss of electrical power /
heating
3. Loss of water for drinking, bathing & sanitation
4. Loss of normal access to
food re-supply
5. Loss of normal transportation
6. Loss of purchasing power
7. Loss of Security -
Civil Unrest
Disaster / Crisis Effect
Elements
Probability of a Disaster & Magnitude of Effect
Any crisis CAN happen, but
what are the odds any specific event will effect you and your family? This answer should drive your
planning efforts. Prepare for the most likely events that will
affect you and your family.
Long-Term or Short Term
Effects
The extent of your preparations will also be driven by the
potential duration of a specific crisis event. Generally, if you
plan for a long term crisis, you will be adequately prepared for those
that are short term in nature.
Wide Spread or Localized Effects
While those who experienced the magnitude of the Dust Bowl or some
of the larger hurricanes
rightfully considered the crisis as a wide spread event, in many parts
of the country, they were considered an inconvenience if they were considered
at all. Localized events are generally, naturally caused crisis
such as hurricanes, blizzards, tornados, earthquakes and wildfires or
terrorist action in a single city. An economic crisis will have a
much more far-reaching effect.
Event
Potential Effects
Below is an example of
crisis events with probability, geographic extent and severity of the
effect on the economy. Your specific list will be different based
on your geographic location and whether you live in a city, suburb or
rural area. Probability and, in some cases for man-made crisis,
effect ranking can change in a short period of time.
Civil Effects
While there are many potential
crisis that can affect you and your family, one of the high-priority
effects to consider and be prepared for is the civil reaction to the
emergency. The emotional response by the unprepared person to an
emergency starts with surprise, followed by anxiety then fear as
the survival instinct kicks in. As the duration of the crisis
extends, many normal people may act irrationally and violently to obtain
resources needed for their personal survival. Food riots are a
very real potential as well as attacks on homes and businesses.
Example of Crisis Event
Evaluations
Severe Weather
- Hurricanes, tornados, ice-storms, blizzards, etc
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
There are more frequent and severe crisis caused
by storm related events than any other cause. Weather events are
always localized to specific geographical area such as East and Gulf
Coasts for Hurricanes and the Mid-West for Blizzards, while
"ice-storms" have high potential in small event-specific areas.
Drought is cyclic in the Southwest and Southeast.
Wild Fires
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
The
far west has the most frequent and severe wild fire events. They
threaten life and home. If you live in a wild fire prone area, you
need a plan to lower the potential effect on your property and have a
designated place to go if evacuation is needed.
Regional
Electrical Grid Failure
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
The national electrical grid is currently severely strained due to
increasing demand and failure to keep the system upgraded and
maintained. A few years ago, a single breaker failure caused a
wide-spread, cascading loss of electrical power for days in the Midwest and
Northeast. Other events that can cause extended power outages include:
sever weather, cyber-attack, and earthquakes.
Earthquake
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
Hundreds of earthquakes happen every day and go unreported
because they are not felt at ground level and do no damage that affects
people. Most high Richter scale earthquakes will affect a much smaller
area than a hurricane, but severe earthquakes can cause a loss of
electrical services for
millions of people, taking months to restore.
Volcanic Eruption
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
In the U.S., the potential for volcanic eruptions are limited to the
West Coast areas of Northern California, Oregon, Washington and Alaska
with Hawaii having continual volcanic activity. Volcanic eruptions
affect a relatively small area if lava, mud flows or pyroclastic flows
are involved. Much larger down-wind areas can be affected by volcanic ash
fallout.
Pandemic
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
With
fast world-wide travel today, infectious pandemics can
spread quickly. The most prevalent is related to influenza type
viruses but potential exists for smallpox, and tuberculosis pandemics. More people
died world-wide during and just after the First World War from the
Spanish Flu pandemic than from war-related actions. About one third of
the world population was affected with 50 million deaths.
Terrorist Attack
- Physical or Cyber Attack
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Serivces
Effect Duration
While the U.S. has not suffered another significant terrorist attack since 9/11, the
probability of more terrorist attacks, both physical and
computerized, is highly likely over the long
term. The events of 9/11
show that the effects can have a very wide effect if
financial or power centers are attacked.
Hyperinflation
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
Hyperinflation is an out-of-control" economy in which prices increase rapidly as a
currency quickly looses its value. Hyperinflation occurs when
there is an unchecked increase in the money supply by government
deficit spending along with widespread
fear or unwillingness to hold money for more than a short time to avoid
further losses. Currently, U.S. debt to
foreign countries exceeds 35% of the Gross National Product.
This is a
significant economic indicator of high potential for hyper-inflation.
Key indicators of future hyper-inflation are sell-off of the U.S. Dollar
by foreign governments and over-printing of currency by the Federal
Government to "spend" their way out of a crisis. Historically,
even a best case managed
hyperinflation cycle lasts for two to five years with a slow recovery.
Cyber & Economic Attack
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
Daily, hundreds of cyber attacks are conducted by
other nations and terrorist organizations to test their ability to
infiltrate government and commercial networks as practice for events
when disrupting the government, military, financial and power
distribution systems would benefit their goals.
Economic
Collapse
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
The current high level of government over-spending is
bringing financial collapse closer than ever. A hyper-inflation or debt
driven financial collapse will create extensive unemployment, disruption
of society, and business failures. An economic collapse would have
a lasting world-wide effect. Significant lawlessness could take
root in some areas. Black markets would surge in theses conditions as
food and other goods become scarce.
Solar
Event
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
A solar event is a massive ejection of high energy particles from
the sun. Sometimes called a Carrington event or super solar storm
(electro-magnetic pulse), these massive ejections happen on a cyclic
basis. The last time was in 1859. This event knocked out a
majority of the telegraph system. Today, an event of this type has
the potential to fry most unprotected electronics, including vehicle
ignition systems, all utility provided electrical power, computers,
satellites, and any electronics that are not protected. Imagine
the effect if one day you woke up and no vehicles would start, all
communication was gone and all electronic systems that control
manufacturing were fried ... and could not be brought back? Based
on historical solar cycles, another massive solar storm is highly
likely. This event would cause a loss of government, food and
material production and significant social upheaval.
Civil
Disruption
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
Civil unrest and violence would be preceded by
financial collapse. Martial law and other government
hyper-controls will accelerate a loss of control and faith in the federal government.
This is the model that has occurred in countries that have
undergone civil disruptions in the 20th century. How the U.S. Military
would react has a big question mark.
Oil Embargo
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services Effect Duration
Politically motivated oil embargos have happened
before (1970s) and can happen again if oil producing countries have
changes in ruling parties or if current ruling governments are pressured
by radical elements in their population. If oil
producing countries come under control of radical Islamic or
socialist elements, energy prices will skyrocket causing ALL prices to
rise significantly..
Military Attack
Probability
Geographic Extent
Loss of Services
Effect Duration
Currently, the geo-political situation does not present a very high
potential for a "traditional" military attack on the U.S. from another country.
U.S. capability and technology are currently very effective deterrents.
Economic and Cyber attack are much more likely.
NEXT
Psychology of Survival
See the ADVANCED
Area for Specific Plans
